Event contracts · Global markets
Event contracts are binary instruments listed on regulated exchanges. Each contract prices an outcome between 0% and 100% implied probability. Licence scope, banking access, and permitted contract types depend on jurisdiction and operator authorisation.
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Core concept
Participants trade Yes or No positions on defined outcomes. Pricing reflects order-book depth and available information at execution time, not a house-held edge.
Venues list contracts under financial-market authorisation in each jurisdiction. Registration, surveillance, and market-conduct obligations apply separately from national betting licences that govern sportsbooks.
Research on liquid event-contract markets documents price movement in response to new information; depth and participation levels determine how closely quotes track incoming data.
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Lifecycle
Each market states a binary question, expiry logic, and an approved resolution source such as official statistics, league data, or exchange rulebooks.
A 62% Yes price corresponds to a 62% implied probability before fees. The complementary No side prices the remaining probability on two-sided books.
Positions may be closed before expiry when counterparty liquidity exists. Low-volume markets can show wide spreads and delayed fills.
Correct outcomes settle at 100% of the contract unit; incorrect outcomes settle at 0%. Resolution criteria are fixed at listing and should be reviewed before entry.
Settlement logic
Illustrative pricing on a 0-100 probability scale. Fees, spreads, and position size are excluded.
Contract:
Quoted implied probability:
Market structure
Product scope, funding rails, and country eligibility differ by operator. Verify licence status and local rules before account funding.
Exchange listing event contracts under derivatives authorisation on supported routes. Coverage includes politics, macroeconomic releases, culture, and sport where locally permitted.
Known for depth in political and macro contracts. Settlement rails, KYC requirements, and eligible markets vary by region and legal entity.
Consumer brokers and betting operators distribute event-contract products under separate fee schedules, identity checks, and country eligibility rules.
Legal landscape
Financial regulators, betting commissions, and consumer authorities each define permitted contract types. Enforcement priorities can change without notice.
Binary event contracts trade on licensed venues subject to market surveillance and conduct rules in each jurisdiction.
EU and UK operators generally require exchange or investment-firm authorisation. Retail access differs by member state.
Some regulators treat event contracts as derivatives; others restrict sports-linked products under betting or securities statutes.
Derivatives registration may coexist with regional consumer or gambling enforcement. Product availability is not uniform.
Permitted categories, KYC standards, and enforcement priorities change as regulators issue updated guidance.
What gets traded
Votes, coalition formation, appointments, and legislative outcomes with documented resolution sources.
Inflation releases, central-bank decisions, employment reports, and recession indicators.
Tournament results, league standings, and individual awards. Regulatory treatment varies by market.
Ceremonies, box-office benchmarks, and media milestones with objective criteria.
Meteorological events, temperature records, and mission timelines with predefined thresholds.
Product approvals, network upgrades, and index thresholds on authorised menus.
Product contrast
| Factor | Prediction market | Licensed sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Quote format | 0-100% implied probability | Decimal, fractional, or American odds |
| Supervising authority | Financial or derivatives regulator | National betting commission |
| Early close | Secondary sale on the exchange book | Cash-out where offered; otherwise hold to result |
| Menu breadth | Politics, macro, culture, selected sport | Sport-led menus, parlays, in-play |
| Remedies | Exchange rulebooks and financial dispute paths | Licensed operator complaint procedures |
Answers
Permissibility depends on national law, contract category, and whether the operator is authorised to serve residents in your country. Review platform terms and applicable financial and betting statutes before opening an account.
Sportsbooks quote fixed odds under betting licences. Prediction venues list exchange-traded binary contracts, often under financial-market supervision. Both may cover sport, but regulation, taxation, and dispute procedures differ.
Standard binary contracts limit downside to the entry price on a 0-100 scale. Margin or leveraged products, where offered, can increase loss severity. Margin terms should be read before use.
Depth, funding rails, identity verification, and permitted categories vary by operator and region. Confirm which legal entity holds client funds and which licence applies to your account.
Each listing specifies a resolution source: official data releases, league statistics, or venue rulebooks. Disputes usually arise when real-world events do not map cleanly to the stated criteria.
